How confident will Manifold be about the presidential election on November 1st?

72

1kṀ8995

resolved Nov 1

100%88%

40% - 60%

1.9%

80% - 100%

6%

60% - 80%

4%

20% - 40%

0.8%

0% - 20%

Resolves to the probability that Manifold assigns at November 1, 2024 to the candidate who actually wins the 2024 presidential election.

(If the probability is fluctuating between different options, I will resolve based on the probability assigned at midnight, the moment November 1 starts. If the probability looks like it's e.g. exactly 60%, I will try to figure out a way to get more decimal places but will round to the less extreme probability if necessary.)

2024 US Presidential Election

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@ZaneMiller Resolves YES :)

bought Ṁ250 YES

Which market? There are several on the election. I wouldn't imagine there'll be a massive spread between them on November 1, but you never know.

@MugaSofer https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

@ZaneMiller Thanks. It actually does matter a fair bit that you're using a Mana-only market, now that I think about it.

@MugaSofer That was the one on the front page of manifold.com/politics at the time I created this market, so... stare decisis.

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If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in charge at the end of his term?

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If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?

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Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?

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