Resolves to the probability that Manifold assigns at November 1, 2024 to the candidate who actually wins the 2024 presidential election.
(If the probability is fluctuating between different options, I will resolve based on the probability assigned at midnight, the moment November 1 starts. If the probability looks like it's e.g. exactly 60%, I will try to figure out a way to get more decimal places but will round to the less extreme probability if necessary.)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ303 | |
| 2 | Ṁ226 | |
| 3 | Ṁ212 | |
| 4 | Ṁ185 | |
| 5 | Ṁ126 |
Which market? There are several on the election. I wouldn't imagine there'll be a massive spread between them on November 1, but you never know.
@ZaneMiller Thanks. It actually does matter a fair bit that you're using a Mana-only market, now that I think about it.
@MugaSofer That was the one on the front page of manifold.com/politics at the time I created this market, so... stare decisis.