How confident will Manifold be about the presidential election on November 1st?
72
1kṀ8995resolved Nov 1
100%88%
40% - 60%
1.9%
80% - 100%
6%
60% - 80%
4%
20% - 40%
0.8%
0% - 20%
Resolves to the probability that Manifold assigns at November 1, 2024 to the candidate who actually wins the 2024 presidential election.
(If the probability is fluctuating between different options, I will resolve based on the probability assigned at midnight, the moment November 1 starts. If the probability looks like it's e.g. exactly 60%, I will try to figure out a way to get more decimal places but will round to the less extreme probability if necessary.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ303 | |
| 2 | Ṁ226 | |
| 3 | Ṁ212 | |
| 4 | Ṁ185 | |
| 5 | Ṁ126 |
Sort by:
@ZaneMiller Thanks. It actually does matter a fair bit that you're using a Mana-only market, now that I think about it.
@MugaSofer That was the one on the front page of manifold.com/politics at the time I created this market, so... stare decisis.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?
79% chance
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
41% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
33% chance
Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in charge at the end of his term?
35% chance