How confident will Manifold be about the presidential election on November 1st?
Standard
68
แน7521Oct 26
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
80% - 100%
25%
60% - 80%
55%
40% - 60%
8%
20% - 40%
1.6%
0% - 20%
Resolves to the probability that Manifold assigns at November 1, 2024 to the candidate who actually wins the 2024 presidential election.
(If the probability is fluctuating between different options, I will resolve based on the probability assigned at midnight, the moment November 1 starts. If the probability looks like it's e.g. exactly 60%, I will try to figure out a way to get more decimal places but will round to the less extreme probability if necessary.)
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