How confident will Manifold be about the presidential election on November 1st?
72
Ṁ1kṀ9kresolved Nov 1
100%88%
40% - 60%
1.9%
80% - 100%
6%
60% - 80%
4%
20% - 40%
0.8%
0% - 20%
Resolves to the probability that Manifold assigns at November 1, 2024 to the candidate who actually wins the 2024 presidential election.
(If the probability is fluctuating between different options, I will resolve based on the probability assigned at midnight, the moment November 1 starts. If the probability looks like it's e.g. exactly 60%, I will try to figure out a way to get more decimal places but will round to the less extreme probability if necessary.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ZaneMiller Thanks. It actually does matter a fair bit that you're using a Mana-only market, now that I think about it.
@MugaSofer That was the one on the front page of manifold.com/politics at the time I created this market, so... stare decisis.