How confident will Manifold be about the presidential election on November 1st?

Standard

68

แน7521Oct 26

1D

1W

1M

ALL

10%

80% - 100%

25%

60% - 80%

55%

40% - 60%

8%

20% - 40%

1.6%

0% - 20%

Resolves to the probability that Manifold assigns at November 1, 2024 to the candidate who actually wins the 2024 presidential election.

(If the probability is fluctuating between different options, I will resolve based on the probability assigned at midnight, the moment November 1 starts. If the probability looks like it's e.g. exactly 60%, I will try to figure out a way to get more decimal places but will round to the less extreme probability if necessary.)

Get

1,000

and1.00

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