Will US Q4 2023 real GDP growth be above 2.5%
39
233
690
resolved Jan 25
Resolved
YES

Will be settled based on the Q4 advanced estimate here https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Atlanta Fed GDPnow: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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predicted YES

In a surprisingly high growth, GDP came out 3.3% higher in Q4 than Q3 on an annualized basis!

predicted YES

@ZachariahSchwab Consumer spending for the holidays was always my thesis behind estimating a bit higher.

predicted YES

@voodoo These numbers are seasonally adjusted iirc so holiday spending is already taken into account. The main surprise to me was the increase in net exports.

predicted YES

@voodoo see this tweet