Will "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" be at 99.9% chance or more when it closes?
Predictions on Predictions•Whale Watching
14
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Ṁ270
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/will-the-sun-rise-tomorrow-dbb96cdd639b

Jan 3, 10:59pm: Will "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" be at >=99.9% when it closes? → Will "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" be at 99.9% chance or more when it closes?

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predicted NO

I haven't seen any markets that confident before, but I will sell my shares because i can see that OP is trying to manipulate the market, which kinda breaks my model

If I sampled 1000 days, how many of those days do you think the sun would rise? If you think 999 or more on average, bet YES. Otherwise, NO.

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