Will the sun rise tomorrow?
Mini
37
5.3k
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
YES

I will personally check whether it has risen tomorrow and resolve the market accordingly.

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Are you above the Arctic Circle by any chance?

What in the hell just happened?

@ForrestTaylor just want to see if I can get @acc to buy up some shares

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ See, this sort of thing is why I am vociferously against AI

predicted YES
predicted YES

@ForrestTaylor That might be the best chance at https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/will-will-the-sun-rise-tomorrow-be unless any whales decide to buy in.

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ I have no idea what is even going on there lol

predicted YES

Summary of Meta markets:

Market 1 ==> P(S) = ~100%

Market 2 ==> P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)

Market 3 ==> P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%

Market 4 ==> P(P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%) ≤ 30%

predicted YES

Current probabilities:

Market 1: 0.9697304528637013 (YES if sun rises)

Market 2: 0.15621542031374536 (NO if resolved now)

Market 3: 0.5901639344262294 (NO if resolved now)

Market 4: 0.5901639344262294 (NO if resolved now)

predicted YES

Sorry, these are wrong, disregard. This one should be market 4 and this one should be market 5. Market 4 is P(P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%) ≥ 90% and market 5 is P(P(P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%) ≥ 90%) ≤ 30%.

You guys seem awfully sure

@ZZZZZZ If I'm wrong, I don't think there will be much point in donating to charity anymore.