🏅 Top traders

Are you above the Arctic Circle by any chance?

What in the hell just happened?

@ForrestTaylor just want to see if I can get @acc to buy up some shares

@ZZZZZZ See, this sort of thing is why I am vociferously against AI

@ForrestTaylor Some people have had success with it. Eg: https://manifold.markets/JeremyK/follow-up-question-6fac996b015e

@ForrestTaylor That might be the best chance at https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/will-will-the-sun-rise-tomorrow-be unless any whales decide to buy in.

@ZZZZZZ I have no idea what is even going on there lol

Summary of Meta markets:

Market 1 ==> P(S) = ~100%

Market 2 ==> P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)

Market 3 ==> P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%

Market 4 ==> P(P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%) ≤ 30%

Current probabilities:

Market 1: 0.9697304528637013 (YES if sun rises)

Market 2: 0.15621542031374536 (NO if resolved now)

Market 3: 0.5901639344262294 (NO if resolved now)

Market 4: 0.5901639344262294 (NO if resolved now)

Sorry, these are wrong, disregard. This one should be market 4 and this one should be market 5. Market 4 is P(P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%) ≥ 90% and market 5 is P(P(P(P(P(S) ≥ 99.9%)) ≤ 10%) ≥ 90%) ≤ 30%.

You guys seem awfully sure

@ZZZZZZ If I'm wrong, I don't think there will be much point in donating to charity anymore.