Will OpenAI release a plagiarism detector which searches ChatGPT-generated content in the next year?
13
closes 2024
8%
chance

Resolves to YES if OpenAI make a plagiarism detector available for ChatGPT which looks at inputted text and compares it to past text their users have generated with ChatGPT. Resolves NO if by market close (in 1 year), they have not released a plagiarism detector which searches text that ChatGPT users have generated.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will I ditch OpenAI's ChatGPT Plus for Anthropic Claude AI in one month?
MP avatarMP
46% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? (8000M subsidy)
firstuserhere avatarfirstuserhere
28% chance
Will OpenAI release multimodal GPT-4 for public use by the end of November this year?
whalelang avatarwhale
68% chance
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
Gen avatarGenzy
55% chance
Will OpenAI release a search engine before 2024? [Read description]
FranklinBaldo avatarFranklin Baldo
30% chance
Will OpenAI release GPT-4 finetuning by Fall 2023?
Mira avatarMira
64% chance
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
Mira avatarMira
79% chance
Will OpenAI reach a settlement with the New York Times over potential copyright issues before June 30, 2024?
getby avatarI get down
37% chance
Will OpenAI have >$300 million in revenue in 2023?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
92% chance
Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023?
getby avatarI get down
26% chance
Will Open AI release a moderation AI tool using GPT-4 this year (2023)?
firstuserhere avatarfirstuserhere
45% chance
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)
Mira avatarMira
83% chance
Will OpenAI announce availability of tunable GPT-4 on November 6th, 2023 - developers day
IsaacKohane avatarIsaac Kohane
36% chance
Will OpenAI opensource a 12B parameter model by the end of 2023 with performance matching the original GPT-3?
dmayhem93 avatardmayhem93
30% chance
Will the New York Times sue OpenAI for copyright infringement in 2023?
Thomas42 avatarThomas M
31% chance
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)?
Mira avatarMira
55% chance
Will OpenAI announce a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects? (2024)
Mira avatarMira
64% chance
Will OpenAI release a new product by the end of 2023?
whalelang avatarwhale
42% chance
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
firstuserhere avatarfirstuserhere
55% chance
Will a foreign agent be discovered at OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind by the end of 2026?
ZoharJackson avatarZohar Jackson
39% chance
Sort by:
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimapredicts NO

Does it need to publicly available? Or could this market resolve Yes if it was just available to eg a government

1 reply
ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZpredicts NO

@NoaNabeshima I think the word *release" Implies publicly available. At least, I intended it to mean a public release but it is a valid question.

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimasold Ṁ82 of NO

Suppose OpenAI releases an accurate plagiarism detector which does not search over text ChatGPT users have generated. How does this resolve?

3 replies
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimapredicts NO

@NoaNabeshima

Scott Aaronson has worked on pretty good statistical watermarking E.G. https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823

If they released an API that checks for watermarking, would this resolve as Yes?

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimapredicts NO

@NoaNabeshima An API that did that would be just as good as one that literally searched content, I think.

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZpredicts NO

@NoaNabeshima It will resolve NO.

Resolves NO if ... they have not released a plagiarism detector which searches text that ChatGPT users have generated.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ10 of YES

I think they might integrate that functionality within ChatGPT itself. Today also i use it to ask "was the following text written by chatGPT:" and "provide an estimate of confidence for whether the following text was written by chatGPT".

Doesn't always work but I'd p good

2 replies
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts YES
ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZbought Ṁ70 of NO

@firstuserhere the market is not about that. It is about a SEARCH function.

noumena avatar
Rachel Shubought Ṁ80 of YES

Does this already exist?

https://qz.com/openai-chatgpt-solution-cheating-plagiarism-gptzero-1850057950

Only not betting up further because I imagine maybe you already know about this, if so, you should edit the market to explain why this doesn't qualify.

3 replies
ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZbought Ṁ100 of NO

@noumena It has to search ChatGPT-written text

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZpredicts NO

@noumena not predict