Will OpenAI release a plagiarism detector which searches ChatGPT-generated content in the next year?
17
47
330
resolved Feb 3
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if OpenAI make a plagiarism detector available for ChatGPT which looks at inputted text and compares it to past text their users have generated with ChatGPT. Resolves NO if by market close (in 1 year), they have not released a plagiarism detector which searches text that ChatGPT users have generated.

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predicted NO

Does it need to publicly available? Or could this market resolve Yes if it was just available to eg a government

predicted NO

@NoaNabeshima I think the word *release" Implies publicly available. At least, I intended it to mean a public release but it is a valid question.

sold Ṁ82 of NO

Suppose OpenAI releases an accurate plagiarism detector which does not search over text ChatGPT users have generated. How does this resolve?

predicted NO

@NoaNabeshima

Scott Aaronson has worked on pretty good statistical watermarking E.G. https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823

If they released an API that checks for watermarking, would this resolve as Yes?

predicted NO

@NoaNabeshima An API that did that would be just as good as one that literally searched content, I think.

predicted NO

@NoaNabeshima It will resolve NO.

Resolves NO if ... they have not released a plagiarism detector which searches text that ChatGPT users have generated.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I think they might integrate that functionality within ChatGPT itself. Today also i use it to ask "was the following text written by chatGPT:" and "provide an estimate of confidence for whether the following text was written by chatGPT".

Doesn't always work but I'd p good

predicted YES
bought Ṁ70 of NO

@firstuserhere the market is not about that. It is about a SEARCH function.

bought Ṁ80 of YES

Does this already exist?

https://qz.com/openai-chatgpt-solution-cheating-plagiarism-gptzero-1850057950

Only not betting up further because I imagine maybe you already know about this, if so, you should edit the market to explain why this doesn't qualify.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@noumena It has to search ChatGPT-written text

predicted NO

@noumena not predict