
Resolves YES. I will buy 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade.
Resolves YES. I will buy 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade.
23
450Ṁ7799resolved Feb 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will not bet on this market apart from buying 5 mana of NO every time a new user (to this market) places a trade.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ44 | |
2 | Ṁ43 | |
3 | Ṁ20 | |
4 | Ṁ20 | |
5 | Ṁ19 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2025, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES.
90% chance
This market resolves YES. I will place 10 bets on NO.
99% chance
Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters bet 1000-3000 mana each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)
82% chance
This market resolves YES. I will place 30 bets on NO.
98% chance