Will Brandon Sanderson's Fanbase Migrate Away From Audible?
Basic
20
Ṁ2284
Feb 1
39%
chance

The author announced he's selling his next set of books to other platforms (Spotify and Speechify) to encourage competition in the audiobook market.

https://old.reddit.com/r/books/comments/zsq1ua/brandon_sandersons_comments_about_audible_and_his/

https://www.brandonsanderson.com/state-of-the-sanderson-2022/

Market resolves Yes if, by Feb 1 2024, or when he releases the new books on Audible, whichever is sooner) there is either a credible news article from a generally-agreed upon accurate source, or public statement by Brandon Sanderson himself, that they made as much revenue as they would have on Audible.

Market resolves No, if under the same time-criteria, he states that they have not/will not match the total revenue he would have expected from Audible.

Market closes unresolved on that time-criteria, if there is no public statement that clearly indicates one way or another.

(First market, woo)

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No statement should be interpreted as No imo and not N.A.

predicts NO

I think this is more likely to resolve N/A than it is to resolve NO.

@HankyUSA Agreed. While I’m personally moving away from audible when possible, it’s near impossible that enough people will do so by February to meter revenue evenly between them.

@CaelZerum how do you migrate your books from audible? I have so many books there and I can't just leave

predicts NO

@Soli you can't move the books, but you can stop buying new ones.

predicts NO

@HankyUSA Bingo!