Will Saudi Arabia officially enter a military conflict against Iran by May 1, 2026?

This market resolves Yes if, by 11:59 PM UTC on May 1, 2026, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially enters a military conflict against Iran, meaning Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledges or clearly undertakes direct military action against Iranian territory, Iranian armed forces, or Iranian state-controlled assets.

This includes, for example:

• officially confirmed Saudi airstrikes, missile strikes, naval attacks, or ground operations against Iran;

• a formal declaration by Saudi authorities that Saudi forces are participating in hostilities against Iran;

• direct Saudi military engagement that is widely confirmed by credible reporting and attributable to the Saudi state.

This market resolves No if, by that deadline:

• no such official Saudi military involvement occurs;

• Saudi Arabia only provides logistical, political, intelligence, or defensive support to allies;

• hostilities involve only proxy groups, militias, or unofficial actors without direct official Saudi military participation;

• there are threats, mobilizations, or diplomatic escalations without direct official entry into conflict.

For resolution, the strongest weight should be given to official Saudi government statements and broad consensus among credible international news outlets. If evidence is mixed, the market should resolve based on whether Saudi Arabia’s direct and official military participation is clearly established by the deadline.