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I learned my lesson here, the next set has a cleaner "YES/NO" market structure

https://manifold.markets/YourTreasuryDirect/will-us-treasury-series-i-bond-fixe

Will the US Treasury Series I Bond fixed rate go up?

73% chance. The US Treasury will announce a new Series I bond fixed rate on May 1 2024. The current fixed rate is: 1.30% YES: I think the new fixed rate will be >=1.30% NO: I think the new fixed rate will be <1.30% https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/ https://www.yourtreasurydirect.com/rates/ibonds

Announced: 1.30%

https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/

I have to round, sadly, to closing market at 1%

https://tipswatch.com/2023/10/08/the-i-bonds-fixed-rate-will-rise-but-by-how-much/

"my current thinking is that the I Bond’s new fixed rate should fall in the range of 1.40% to 1.70%"

The I Bond’s fixed rate will rise. But by how much?

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com It's clear to me that Treasury will increase the fixed rate on the U.S. Series I Bond at the November 1 reset. This is an easy call. But how high can it go? I Bonds are a U.S. Treasury investment. I do these projections every April and October, but there is…

Working backwards to a fixed rate with guesswork:

Assuming it’s going to take a while for inflation to go down, that the September CPI U index will be at or slightly above August (two scenarios: 307.2 or 308) and using a guess for what I expect a competitive composite rate (4.57%) for the next year based on the last composite rate difference from the FEDs effective fund rate at that time (5.33 - (5.06-4.3)) (not sure if this is sound), I get a semiannual rate of 1.72 to 2.4%

Edit: I somehow got the wrong calculation for the fixed rate I did previously one so I put it all in a notebook this time after starting from scratch: (Now getting 1.1 or 0.5% with an average of 0.8%)

https://deepnote.com/workspace/jrpdata-f389534a-f223-4be1-9120-21af4479c6b5/project/Fixed-rate-series-I-2023-November-92841950-f97b-4053-93a6-2a256c05087b/notebook/Fixed%20rate%20series%20I-a0c91df5b68349c8a37d8f156e56dfb1

The FED methodology for setting the fixed rate is a black box and I have never done type of guesswork calculations in this domain before somI am betting conservatively lower.

Fixed rate series I 2023 November

Managed notebooks for data scientists and researchers.