What will the outcome of the US presidential election be, conditional on the criminal trials against Trump?
48
1kṀ11kresolved Nov 15
100%99.0%
Donald Trump is convicted of felony, also wins election
0.8%
Donald Trump is convicted of felony, doesn't win election
0.1%
Donald Trump is not convicted of felony, and wins election
0.1%
Donald Trump is not convicted felony, doesn't win election
0.0%
OTHER
This is designed to figure out how much "will trump win the election" and "will trump be convicted" are actually the same questions. Might make for useful arbitrage!
Given the closing date, this market will conclude with the best eligible "not convicted" even if the criminal proceedings are still ongoing, so "other" will not be chosen simply because the criminal trials has not been concluded by time of election
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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