If no one recommends anything that captures the title's intention better, resolution will be based on https://github.com/FranxYao/chain-of-thought-hub
Specifically - if on August 1st one of the PaLM 2 models has at least 3 scores better than GPT-4, and has at least twice as many scores better than GPT-4 than worse, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, assuming no major contention, resolves NO.

In other words - unless the current PaLM 2 benchmarks are wrong somehow and better ones come out, this will resolve NO.

I will use the same criteria for