Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
21
155
1k
2025
66%
chance

If any open-source model eclipses or achieves GPT-4 quality within a 1% win rate on AlpacaEval using any evaluator (https://tatsu-lab.github.io/alpaca_eval/) by January 1st, 2025, this question resolves to "YES." Otherwise, it resolves to "NO." If GPT-4 is open-sourced by January 1st, 2025, the question resolves to "YES."

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Does this include 4o?

predicts NO

Which GPT-4?

More related questions