If the Unemployment Rate is 5% or less what will it be by EOY 2024?
3
203Ṁ29Jan 2
29%
>3%
18%
3% - 3.5%
18%
3.51% - 3.75%
18%
3.76% - 4%
18%
4% - 5%
What will the unemployment rate in the USA be by the end of 2024?
This is the source that i am using to track. - https://www.bls.gov/cps/
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uhoh this one might not work. because if it is 3.1%, then two answers are right
the one labeled >3%
the one labeled 3%-3.5%
does it let you select two answers?
hmm what if it is 4.0 or more? can you add another option for that
or if not, maybe rename the question to "If the unemployment rate is 4.0 or less, what will it be?" and then NA the question if it is above 4.0
@YewNevano other way around, <4% means it is less than 4% (4 is the bigger one), and >4% means it is greater than 4% (4 is the smaller one)
crocodile wants to eat the bigger one!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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