Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' stay above 75% for at least an hour?
Mini
23
Ṁ13k
resolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES
Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes. The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market as soon as possible instead of waiting for an hour (since, presumably, the implied probability of a resolved market is not going to change). This question is inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a, but hopefully can't be gamed as easily. Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES, regardless of it's implied probability at the time. This is not what I originally intended, but Gurkenglas convinced me that this way is better.
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Hedging against 100% odds, lmao.
Duncan's market resolved to YES https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
Somehow I made a mistake when I read this earlier, per what @Adam said, but yet I was able to sell at $M 13, basically profited $M 3 off my own idiocy somehow.
never mind I didn't notice "Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES"
Patrick is right. Picking up free money assuming Yev doesn't defect.
Yev's market here should resolve as, "NO" because Duncan's linked market never went above 66% as far as I can tell and trading on Duncan's linked market has been closed.
The Yes if duncan resolves Yes rule makes this a boring market though! 96% and the remaining 4% is only due to lack of a whale yet.
Leaving my arbitrage position between this market and https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a. This market really should be lower (assuming negligible probability that the original these are derivatives of doesn't resolve positive before it can be bought up to 75% (such that that one end up negative, but the escape clause is triggered for this one)), but I'm not confident I can profit from the fact that it isn't, for reasons related to @kjz 's objection, linked here: https://manifold.markets/kjz/will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit.
Oh wait, this is probably NO if Duncan's market resolves YES before people update the price.

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