Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' trade above 75% before March?
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Ṁ7.3Kresolved Feb 23
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Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) trades at or above 75% any time before March 1, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 4:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:00 pm
Feb 21, 5:00pm: @Duncan has closed the market on the underlying, so I'm closing here as well. (I accidentally unclosed the market by mistake, so I re-closed it again.) I may wait until the underlying market resolves in case @Duncan un-closes it.
Feb 22, 7:19pm: @Duncan briefly reopened his market and the underlying went to a max of 73% before resolving YES. Since there was never a trade at 75% or above, I am resolving NO.
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I am hoping this works out for the NO. Either https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t confirms it is YES, then it closes but never has traded > 75%. OR it is opened again, but that implies a NO so should in the short term spook the market and keep it below 75%.
Leaving my arbitrage position between this market and https://manifold.markets/YevheniiDiomidov/will-russia-invades-ukraine-stay-ab. This market really should be higher (assuming negilgible probability that the original these are derivatives of doesn't resolve positive before it can be bought up to 75%), but I'm not confident I can profit from the fact that it isn't, for reasons related to @kjz 's objection, linked here: https://manifold.markets/kjz/will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit.
I created https://manifold.markets/YevheniiDiomidov/will-russia-invades-ukraine-stay-ab, which can't be gamed the way Gurkenglas describes.