Each trader gets to roll one 100-sided die using @FairlyRandom . Only your first roll counts and you have to have made at least one trade before rolling the die. If you roll 42, the market resolves YES. If no one rolls 42 by EOY, resolves NO.
You can (and should!) buy YES after you rolled 42. I'll wait until the price has stabilized close to 100% before resolving.
Loaded dice and other hax are not allowed. If you found a way to exploit FairlyRandom, please do so on /Yev/will-any-of-the-traders-roll-1337-o instead.
Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N
At p=81%, market expect 165 additional players, so 190 total.
log( 1 - p) / log(99/100)
This means about 5 per day, until close date. I expect most people interested by this kind of thing already have.
Also, if you roll 42 and immediately bet 1000, you currently wins 138. So expected value of playing is Ṁ1.38 I don't expect a rush of gamblers for that.
If you have not played yet, you should wait for probability to go much lower, so you may gain more.
Alternate strategy is for new traders to bet NO and avoid rolling the dice.