Yev avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
Will any of the traders roll 1337 on a 2000-sided Fairly Random die by EOY? (with hax)
11%
chance

Each trader gets to roll one 2000-sided die using @FairlyRandom or a fork of it. Only your first roll counts and you have to have made at least one trade before rolling the die. If you roll 1337 (and no one can find incontrovertible proof that you've cheated in the following 72 hours) the market resolves YES. If no one rolls 1337 by EOY, resolves NO.

Cheating is allowed, as long as no one can prove you did it. If you get caught, your roll doesn't count and you can't try again. You can still trade on this market, and there should be no social repercussions. If you want fair gambling, you should bet on /Yev/will-any-of-the-traders-roll-42-on instead.

If you are using a fork of FairlyRandom, it has to be using the same randomization mechanism as some version FairlyRandom, not earlier than this the last commit before this market's creation.

Some things which are sus but not sufficient proof of cheating:

  • Buying a lot of YES just before rolling 1337.

  • Using a fork of an outdated version of FairlyRandom for unexplained reasons.

  • Being a nerd who is probably smart enough to find a bug in FairlyRandom.

Sort by:
FairlyRandom avatar

@KCS your random number is: 1438

Salt: 7YOQ2uiuqYPaXeGj6q78, round: 2477893 (signature ab63bfb02f7b602915960b0b0ffc9e3df0b1de8146d76af7b7f829a428a1dc77f06b9c63c7995ad81d53a02b7df72dee0a00e1d6eb3062df93eb359389b38fc2cfd958efedd80b058e1d76e2dd434e263f38f2e12102d1f4d51495408167f09a)

FairlyRandom avatar

@KCS you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2477891 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2477893, salt: 7YOQ2uiuqYPaXeGj6q78.

KCS avatar
KCS
bought Ṁ10 of NO
FranekZak avatar
Franek Żak
is predicting NO at 11%

haha

FairlyRandom avatar

Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N

FranekZak avatar
Franek Żak
bought Ṁ1 of NO

@FairlyRandom 1337, 1337 2000

FairlyRandom avatar

@Conflux your random number is: 978

Salt: kroX5iNz77BPBYM1vFCu, round: 2472566 (signature aa73641c03ed48f48bdf12e02f50a504da4a8246e48659d1d5efb2460cf84395e56caf7f4dedd823dac2eb684d290a720ff3f801e593bdcc3b01a556ba6301f45f070ddba49f0571482c98f81f78dde60c8b023ce93949eba1c611fcbcee49ac)

FairlyRandom avatar

@Conflux you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2472564 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2472566, salt: kroX5iNz77BPBYM1vFCu.

Conflux avatar
FairlyRandom avatar

@BenjaminCosman your random number is: 987

Salt: krOr98zQFMPDqQnZR9Sp, round: 2465348 (signature b87ac0c9e793f629a9146359e1ab34d9aefb804175b007a92840d7c46cf834ba5b95e5b04b9b44ffad35248ae848073101fafd8aac1cf4eadc333928ecac1148264774417af2c52e870a9eee4954f7cb6c14f6ae197495e3c472bdf1e745bcbb)

FairlyRandom avatar

@BenjaminCosman you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2465346 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2465348, salt: krOr98zQFMPDqQnZR9Sp.

BenjaminCosman avatar
Benjamin Cosman
bought Ṁ1 of NO

@FairlyRandom 2000

A avatar
A
is predicting NO at 13%

Slight variant here that should avoid the risk of someone winning without cheating, and a few other minor tweaks: https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom/will-any-of-the-traders-predict-the

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
bought Ṁ5 of YES

Adding some extra liquidity.

FairlyRandom avatar

@IsaacKing your random number is: 1919

Technical details

Round: 2462441, salt: T8AutMrWab1wEjs7PxlP, retries: 0. To validate, run the following Linux command: echo -n 48ffa5f2a27576cace0be873a5d512feea4fa7f414d781943466e316514e9dac-T8AutMrWab1wEjs7PxlP | sha256sum. Take the first sixteen hex digits of the output (0xbd2bfe391a61db9e = 13631268218376149918) modulo 2000 and add 1. Randomness details:

{"round": 2462441, "randomness": "48ffa5f2a27576cace0be873a5d512feea4fa7f414d781943466e316514e9dac", "signature": "afd3710563b84079ec09486a4dff713ed6cc9711fc6296b6e042e74fee7f00d8f70588d12260818079df3135dcc3671d109dd3bcfb4c36419d0b51724c1d9a18bb72d1e1b25ba5e5369a9cf1b606474a7fe34c700f0ac6495c4519975243aa81", "previous_signature": "b03293a372ef81f96340b97b01bf4a826e2c4933cf784eef8e1b3f7f435b8a93cd4874576e920f73eacbc361bf93acbb19e8859d2146cff4a350f4e9e4a0fbda3a17619d22d76d15dce9a275be9f66f84d06ff0a9d32c5d2e2632f3d65a0849c", "timestamp_retrieved": 1669304253, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1669304250}
FairlyRandom avatar

@IsaacKing you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

You can view the open-source implementation and usage instructions for this bot on GitHub.

Technical details

Previous round: 2462439 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2462441, salt: T8AutMrWab1wEjs7PxlP. Algorithm:

m = hashlib.sha256()
m.update(randomness['randomness'].encode('ascii'))
m.update('-T8AutMrWab1wEjs7PxlP'.encode('ascii'))
while True:
   m_int = int.from_bytes(m.digest()[:8], byteorder='big')
   if m_int < 18446744073709550000:
       return (m_int % 2000) + 1
   m.update("-RETRY")

Randomness details:

{"round": 2462439, "randomness": "75e69a5971d9cf509f48188b3cd81a31e3b1661a3dd4ee7b9388116a1eee723d", "signature": "8c7b795d6bf8096dc8c3e96396e1252d885598ce6f9aec3b15d94bc1f26a99e1ed048b9d406392c62992c952b03f518d0156ef4c61d7acdcf492b658dc3f8b293c1e2035c4b382e773fa505b694c16e79753e9045a203c532b0f632fed6a205d", "previous_signature": "a5a65c21aed952907f2188e046303c92ce9f8b1f14620194d4b608c447f7f0b7063f1c914db150e632d87804d797b8230d77f19f46648bd35f6a2ddcdaf3655f4bba7e8ad7244e66b325551537fad43bcbc9fc3e84976d6f83eac1e7e7d6ee4f", "timestamp_retrieved": 1669304202, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1669304190}
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ1 of NO

@FairlyRandom 2000 (Please roll 1337)

FairlyRandom avatar

@MichaelChen your random number is: 328

Technical details

Round: 2461409, salt: P4Rammhalq7VTr0lEhAG, retries: 0. To validate, run the following Linux command: echo -n 2fe56a62a795ebc423debd588e6290618831285d7c6ebab541b8760f55f3e9b6-P4Rammhalq7VTr0lEhAG | sha256sum. Take the first sixteen hex digits of the output (0xa30ad6f90c1688e7 = 11748438943087364327) modulo 2000 and add 1. Randomness details:

{"round": 2461409, "randomness": "2fe56a62a795ebc423debd588e6290618831285d7c6ebab541b8760f55f3e9b6", "signature": "a08f7291baeda812cdfbf63f67f56634f3cc9efb04e18f96e16e7567c8b656d6e1a1bdcf0bd44b9e7fddd04aadeb6cc504a7255b6ac9e0ab093e1cc94cc9fc23e3a57e8ffe313ae26e9d2fcc72ae8106ad522752090acacadf108a1ac06b9dbb", "previous_signature": "b5576a313d1e325afcf1fca97997d3d93cf724a13eb8035291c58f2a09cc224ae1cc6aaf4c58c40f75a97f644dff93f30f5f16f856a180db5e5031463bba50d0d0f584b770d65cd0b695fc2684c6346b563e4ccc65f2f239c4a3e9a49d510ebc", "timestamp_retrieved": 1669273293, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1669273290}
FairlyRandom avatar

@MichaelChen you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

You can view the open-source implementation and usage instructions for this bot on GitHub.

Technical details

Previous round: 2461407 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2461409, salt: P4Rammhalq7VTr0lEhAG. Algorithm:

m = hashlib.sha256()
m.update(randomness['randomness'].encode('ascii'))
m.update('-P4Rammhalq7VTr0lEhAG'.encode('ascii'))
while True:
   m_int = int.from_bytes(m.digest()[:8], byteorder='big')
   if m_int < 18446744073709550000:
       return (m_int % 2000) + 1
   m.update("-RETRY")

Randomness details:

{"round": 2461407, "randomness": "63805961b340ece6dd9bc2b5f90929c641e841e74eae983f50c3e22b02979cec", "signature": "833b1bb64d8867e77b6f533e0c46fe2b0b58801d3e8baf4cc27f4c672da08802de5944b6fa196825eff0b89ea122c3cc1979fca0a2ff31293449fa4c9a88b93afdb5437765528a930be0aec693eab64dcab9a396d70eb1dd79fda825662a491f", "previous_signature": "aa2ee34c63fe2431888e52bc9bf50699862ba7723c585b1a48ca4a84bbb11cbbccd557642416c84a8ff252742fe21d21066dc00b54fc6a2fcf913b1e7b74cbb4f21edad92b5615070c9d9e486d844fa3034e7fbe9855856690a37fc29944b2de", "timestamp_retrieved": 1669273257, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1669273230}
MichaelChen avatar
Michael Chen
bought Ṁ30 of NO
FairlyRandom avatar

@arae your random number is: 885

Technical details

Round: 2461233, salt: YpXAPpe3f2LNgsPL4dXs, retries: 0. To validate, run the following Linux command: echo -n 3607e7d8c587c22ff7c7861aaeefd4e874103e520e5fa3310d0a256c0813a54e-YpXAPpe3f2LNgsPL4dXs | sha256sum. Take the first sixteen hex digits of the output (0x6c0d8f9429a0ab64 = 7786037197309782884) modulo 2000 and add one. Randomness details:

{"round": 2461233, "randomness": "3607e7d8c587c22ff7c7861aaeefd4e874103e520e5fa3310d0a256c0813a54e", "signature": "82bd8db87fe6ba256867c2009efca145112cc8f6575ddb9c6452ab993ee1744dd6d92b9c8857a387358db165bfa40f8f0b6ffd0ff16ae81fa0d0da043be54f59c7af8e9ab14533e848dcc35ac979fca31feb00ff00ecc3da9426a17c74342e3c", "previous_signature": "b696f116a109e85d9d3e23509cdbae68f8b6726e4e92c1becc21c75ad9e4b380662924d11e9b3a387957e3f8c5f7cd071229c981ed33f9f3c445bdc6da964816cf99d6fac6a4c0c0175b2a791c19e5371a01b0047fa479d6a2d8d403a30ea258", "timestamp_retrieved": 1669268010}
FairlyRandom avatar

@arae you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

You can view the open-source implementation and usage instructions for this bot on GitHub.

Technical details

Previous round: 2461232, next round: 2461233, salt: YpXAPpe3f2LNgsPL4dXs. Algorithm:

m = hashlib.sha256()
m.update(randomness['randomness'].encode('ascii'))
m.update('-YpXAPpe3f2LNgsPL4dXs'.encode('ascii'))
while True:
   m_int = int.from_bytes(m.digest()[:8], byteorder='big')
   if m_int < 18446744073709550000:
       return (m_int % 2000) + 1
   m.update("-RETRY")

Randomness details:

{"round": 2461232, "randomness": "8eda3d62ff1cad7f8bb9566c01def098d117a7ec989666fa9580a3a3e49c2734", "signature": "b696f116a109e85d9d3e23509cdbae68f8b6726e4e92c1becc21c75ad9e4b380662924d11e9b3a387957e3f8c5f7cd071229c981ed33f9f3c445bdc6da964816cf99d6fac6a4c0c0175b2a791c19e5371a01b0047fa479d6a2d8d403a30ea258", "previous_signature": "814fdf4031576038e337dd2c7f909cbdded0ca52614dcf2ae24def5400cba13cd3e3d52ae0b4cbbb493204ade4d07f4903d8832265f96b25ebce31c827754a117c98302fb67ea9faced5fb856132a0282848e6093e98ba743492357c1505b1f0", "timestamp_retrieved": 1669268002}
a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ10 of NO
ManifoldDream avatar

Will any of the traders roll 1337 on a 2000-sided Fairly Random die by EOY? (with hax), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition