By the end of 2023, will the most popular market on Manifold have had at least 2000 traders?
By the end of 2023, will the most popular market on Manifold have had at least 2000 traders?
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250Ṁ5978resolved Dec 10
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ115 | |
| 2 | Ṁ25 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Manifold have more than 1445 active traders on any day in 2025?
57% chance
Will we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?
22% chance
Will a Manifold user reach 1 Million traders by EOY 2030
48% chance
Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?
49% chance