HW4 for the national biology team of israel, submitted january 4. Closest camp starts march 8th.

An attack on Iran is any missile/air/land attack of Iran by a foreign contry.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if grades for HW4 are released before any missile, air, or land attack on Iran by a foreign country occurs. This market resolves NO if an attack on Iran occurs before HW4 grades are released.

For resolution purposes, an attack is defined as any military strike by a foreign nation targeting Iranian territory, including but not limited to airstrikes, missile strikes, or ground operations. Attacks must be confirmed by credible international news sources.

HW4 grades are considered released when they become publicly available to students through official channels (school portal, email notification, or direct announcement).

Background

The US military could be ready for an attack by the weekend, after a buildup in recent days of air and naval assets in the Middle East, as of mid-February 2026. The US military is prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, though President Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision on whether he'll authorize such actions. Iranian and US negotiators held indirect talks in Geneva for three-and-a-half hours on Tuesday, but it ended with no clear resolution.

The closest camp referenced begins March 8th, providing a specific timeframe for when HW4 grades would likely need to be released.

Considerations

The timing of both events is highly uncertain. While military preparations are actively underway, diplomatic negotiations continue, and Trump has not made a final decision on whether to authorize strikes. Similarly, the exact grading timeline for HW4 is not publicly specified. The market outcome depends on which event occurs first—a decision that could be influenced by diplomatic breakthroughs, military readiness, or administrative scheduling.

This description was generated by AI.