Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2040?
5
100Ṁ310
2040
45%
chance
45

Resolution Criteria:

  • This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2040, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, major academic institutions) report a military conflict involving both the United States and China resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.

  • Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).

  • Covert or proxy conflicts will count ONLY if direct involvement of official U.S. and Chinese military personnel is verifiably documented by credible sources, resulting in at least 1,000 fatalities on each side.

  • This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2040.

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