Background
The U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) held the first hearing on V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump in May 2025, where a three-judge panel questioned whether the Administration's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs are lawful under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the Constitution's separation-of-powers principles.
Whatever the CIT ultimately decides, the losing side can appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which has exclusive jurisdiction over all CIT appeals under 28 U.S.C. § 1295(a) (5). The Federal Circuit (often
sitting in Washington, D.C.) may issue its own injunction while the merits appeal is pending or as part of its final judgment. The plaintiffs seek a nationwide order preventing Customs & Border Protection and other agencies from collecting or enforcing the Liberation Day tariffs.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if all of the following conditions are met:
Court & Case - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issues an order in the appeal of V.O.S. Selections, Inc. V. United States (appeal from CIT Case No. 1:25-cv-00066;
docket number TBD).
Form of Relief - That order grants injunctive relief that halts enforcement, collection, or implementation of the Liberation Day tariffs.
Qualifying forms include: an injunction pending appeal, a preliminary injunction, a permanent injunction, or a merits judgment that expressly enjoins the tariffs.Scope - The injunction's operative language applies nation-wide, not solely to the named plaintiffs.
Timing - The order is entered on or before 11:59 p.m. ET, December 31 2025.
The market will resolve to "No" if any of the following occur before the deadline and no qualifying "Yes" order has been entered:
Deadline Passes - December 31 2025 passes without the Federal Circuit issuing an order that satisfies all "Yes" criteria.
Relief Denied - The Federal Circuit denies injunctive relief or vacates/overturns any injunction previously issued by the CIT.
Case Ends Without Relief - The appeal is voluntarily dismissed, withdrawn, settled, or declared moot without the court entering a qualifying injunction.
Tariffs Rescinded - The Liberation Day tariffs are fully rescinded or nullified by executive or legislative action before the Federal Circuit grants an injunction.
Clarifications
o A Federal Circuit order that merely affirms a CIT injunction counts as "Yes" only if the court's mandate (or a separate order) leaves that nationwide injunction fully in force on or before the deadline.
o An order limited only to the plaintiffs does not meet the "Yes" criteria.
o Supreme Court action-for example, a later stay or reversal-does not affect market resolution, only the existence of a qualifying Federal Circuit order by the deadline matters.
o If the Federal Circuit issues a qualifying injunction and later narrows or stays it before December 31 2025, the market still resolves
"Yes," provided the original order satisfied all criteria at the moment it was entered.
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