Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
98
6.7kṀ10k
2035
49%
chance

The Millennium Prize Problems are well-known complex mathematical problems selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The Clay Institute has pledged a US$1 million prize for the first correct solution to each problem.

The AI system must independently solve the Millennium Prize Problem without any human assistance during the solution process. Humans can only set up the AI architecture and train it on publicly available knowledge.

  • Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that human programming of the AI to solve a problem is permitted. The level of human involvement in creating the AI that solved Protein Folding (e.g., AlphaFold) is a valid analogue for what this market allows.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Why would AI solve a problem before AI + Humans? this market should be at 5% max

@LuluHowell In the past, AI solved the Protein Folding Problem. There is no reason to think "Human+AI" will solve the protein folding problem first. It turned out AI solved it first. The question allows for human programming of the AI to solve a Millennium Prize Problem in the same way humans programmed AI to solve Protein Folding.

I think the problems will be solved with human intervention before we'll get to AI that can solve everything by itself

bought Ṁ11 YES

@jerkyenox all of them?

@jerkyenox The question allows for human programming of the AI to solve a Millennium Prize Problem in the same way humans programmed AI to solve Protein Folding.

What if AI clearly played a major role in solving the problem but the prize goes to a human who created or used the AI? How would this market resolve?

@SteveMichaels The AI would need to solve the problem by itself for the question to resolve as “Yes”. A human cannot provide any part of the solution.

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