Background

Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP. For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017. Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 1 year. This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.

Resolution Criteria

1. Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test. For this market, “widely recognized” could include official government statements, major scientific bodies, or a broad consensus within the AI research community.

2. Baseline:

   • The baseline nominal GDP figure will be the official BEA “Current-Dollar GDP” for the first full calendar year following the recognized AGI/Turing test event.

   • For example, if the declaration occurs in 2030, the baseline GDP is for the year 2031.

3. Target

   • Determine the baseline year as the first full calendar year following the recognized AGI/Turing test declaration.

   • The 1st full calendar year after that baseline is used for comparison.

   • Check the BEA’s “Current-Dollar GDP” in that 1st year. If it’s at least twice the baseline year’s GDP, the outcome is “Yes”; otherwise, “No.”

   Example: If the declaration occurs in 2030, then 2031 is the baseline year. The 1st full calendar year after 2031 is 2032, and that’s the year used to check whether GDP has doubled.

4. Timing: Use the first published annual estimate for the relevant 1st-year GDP that covers the entire full year.

Fine Print

• Nominal GDP refers exclusively to current-dollar GDP as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

• If the BEA changes its reporting format or is temporarily unavailable, a comparable official U.S. government source may be used.

• The question does not consider inflation-adjusted (real) GDP.

• The definition of “widely recognized” for AGI/Turing test status is based on a combination of official or expert consensus statements.