On twitter, people seem pretty convinced that this is some sort of entrapment operation with a very heavy percentage of undercover law enforcement officers.
This question is asking whether evidence will come to light for or against this proposition.
I'll be honest that I don't have a perfectly clear idea of how to operationalize this, but hopefully we'll get some good suggestions in the comments. I hesitate to do even an overridable Keynesian market since people often have very different ideas from available evidence. I would lean toward a "Only resolves if there is evidence, otherwise resolves N/A, but I'm afraid it might be lopsided towards YES, since it feels less likely there would be hard evidence if the answer was NO.
For now, bet your true beliefs and we'll try to work out something fair in the comments.
I will not be betting in this market, since it involves a judgement call.
I would note that I am not generally a conspiracy theorist and lean skeptical towards this claim.
1,000[[THIS IS ALL DESCRIPTIVE pls DECOUPLE]]
I think the only way this resolves yes is if 'fed' is interpreted very loosely to mean 'has been questioned by the feds as a witness' or something.
The belief that these guys are feds, and most internet fed accusations among left and right-wing political radicals, is just ... conspiritard nonsense. It's not that feds aren't interested in radical politics, especially radical politics with irl demonstrations - but that looks like 'a few key people in the org are informants', or sometimes 'entrapping specific individuals', not 'half of the people marching in the protest are covert federal agents on overtime'.
Especially in somewhat far-right but not super-far right politics, fed accusations serve as a way to separate the good 'our guys' from the bad 'nazis', without tying being far-right to some sort of moral badness, because the nazis are all just feds trying to discredit us!!!! It's never made sense.
There are a lot of earnest radicals on the left anda right - and when you have a bunch of earnest political radicals, they'll do things like protests. There are a lot of nazis, they'll also do protests!
I did a bit of social media searching on patriot front and ... afaict, there are PF true believers, but they are swamped by the broad opinion of both center (joe rogan??) and far-right-wingers (incl literal nazis) which is that they're ebil feds. it's pretty funny, imagine being one of the authentic patriot fronters in that situation