Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, in any calendar year from 2027 through 2030 (inclusive), any of the following primary industry metrics representing the proportion of AI-generated or AI-assisted code drops below its established 2026 baseline:

1. Sonar "State of Code" Survey: The "average share of AI-assisted or generated code committed/contributed by developers" falls below 42% (the 2026 baseline).

2. JetBrains' 2026 Developer Ecosystem: The share of fully agent-generated code falls below 47% (2026).

3. Google Corporate Reporting: The percentage of Google's new code that is AI-generated and approved by engineers falls below 75% (the April 2026 baseline).

• If any of these metrics records a decline below its respective 2026 baseline in an official annual report published for the years 2027 through 2030, this market resolves to YES.

• If the listed tracking series are discontinued, the market creator will resolve the market based on a consensus of other reputable developer surveys and industry reports (such as the Stack Overflow Developer Survey, GitHub Octoverse, or Gartner research).

• If no credible source reports a dip below 2026 levels by the end of 2030, the market resolves to NO.

• If the official reports covering the year 2030 are not published by June 30, 2031, the market will resolve based on the data available up to that date.

Background

According to Sonar's 2026 State of Code Developer Survey, 72% of developers who have tried AI coding tools now use them daily. On average, developers report that 42% of their committed code is AI-generated or assisted. However, a "verification bottleneck" has emerged: 96% of developers do not fully trust AI-generated code to be functionally correct, and 61% state it often "looks correct but isn't reliable".

Independent telemetry from GitClear indicates that AI assistance is present in roughly 25% of commits globally, noting that code duplication has risen alongside AI usage. Meanwhile, hyperscalers have adopted the technology even faster; Google announced in April 2026 that 75% of its new code is generated by AI and approved by engineers. This market asks whether these steep adoption rates will experience a correction or dip by 2030 due to quality concerns, security issues, or changes in developer workflows.

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