Resolution criteria is bad, as others have said. Perhaps you’re right in your update if the ccp makes such claims, but you should resolve based on ground-truth indicators (or as close to such as you can reasonably get).

@Xiklon Please at least specify in the question title something like "or will CCP claim Xi is not"

@GarrettBaker Thanks. Updated again to clarify.

Due to CCP and the Chinese govenment's habit of lying, if any person or organization associated with either claims that Xi is not, the market will resolve to YES

Just saying. If the CCP saying "Xi is not retarded" is evidence for the hypothesis "Xi is retarded", then the CCP saying "Xi is retarded" has be evidence for the hypothesis "Xi is not retarded".

https://www.lesswrong.com/s/zpCiuR4T343j9WkcK/p/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ

Your logic is incorrect — you are not fully considering the human motivations behind each case.

The real binary, which your logic would apply to, is: CCP issues a statement about whether Xi is retarded, vs doesn’t issue any statement.

You're right, although technically this doesn't contradict my comment.

It makes sense that if the CCP issues such a statement, Xi is more likely to be in trouble, vs. if they are silent, he is more likely to be fine. All things being equal.

Still, we might consider the contents of such a statement, given that it's issued. Let's say H is Xi is retarded, E is the CCP saying Xi is not retarded. I grant that P(~E) is very low.

If, as the OP claims, P(H|E) - P(H) > 0, i.e. it's more likely that Xi is retarded when the CCP denies this, then P(H|~E) - P(H) < 0 has to be true, because

(P(H|E)-P(H))P(E) + (P(H|~E)-P(H))P(~E) = 0.

I.e. P(Xi is retarded|the CCP agrees) < P(Xi is retarded). Which actually makes sense if you go all the way on the idea that the CCP always lies, as the OP seems to think.

The only way to make it reasonable is to say that P(H|E) = P(H), i.e. the content of their statement doesn't matter. This, I suppose, matches your conclusion.

@SqrtMinusOne True. Agreed. Updated.

I would say however, P(CCP issues a statement) < P(Xi is retarded)

P(Xi is retarded | CCP affirms) < P(Xi is retarded)

P(~CCP denies) = P(~CCP issues a statement) + P(CCP affirms) > P(CCP denies)

Hence P(Xi is retarded | CCP denies) significantly > P(Xi is retarded)

P(Xi is retarded | ~CCP denies) slightly < P(Xi is retarded)

Real-life example:

July 2020 - P(reeducation facilities in Xinjiang | CCP denies that there are reeducation facilities in Xinjiang) > P(reeducation facilities in Xinjiang)

June 2021 - P(they are education centres | CCP says that they are education centres) < P(they are education centres)

This market is so Xi Jinping.

How afraid are the mods of Manifold being banned in China...?

Lol what. @Joshua resolve ?

@XiJinping slander

This market will not resolve to NO. It will resolve to YES if any person or organization associated with the CCP or the Chinese government claims that Xi is not mentally retarded or otherwise able and normal. It will resolve to YES if Xi dies, the only reasonable explanation of which being his mental retardation and the African swine fever which he recently contracted — Yes, based on reliable sources, I can confidently conclude that Xi is actually a mythically transformed, anthropomorphic pig.

Please be advised that this market will not resolve to NO.

Then it's a nonsensical market. It's just a way of flinging shit.

@PontiMin At the time there were many markets that had such resolution criteria as ‘this market will resolve to NO’ or 100% YES. A way to get free mana for the creator and participants I guess? This was one of them. But I am updating the description/criterion to be fair and true to the question/title.

Mental retardation — Mild to severe impairment in intellectual ability equivalent to an IQ of 70 to 75 or below that is accompanied by significant limitations in social, practical, and conceptual skills (as in interpersonal communication, reasoning, or self-care) necessary for independent daily functioning and that has an onset before age 18.

We have the evidence from RFA and RFI — XJP's intellectual ability is only the level of a primary/elementary schooler. According to these sources, XJP also has severely limited social skills. This market will resolve to YES if any person or organization associated with the CCP or the Chinese government claims that Xi is not mentally retarded or otherwise able and normal.