Will there be protests in China due to rising COVID cases by June 2023?
33
102
650
resolved Jul 8
Resolved
NO

The November–December protests were against the Zero COVID policy and because of draconian government actions. Now that Xi decided on the complete opposite, experts in China estimate that 80–90% of the nation will contract the disease (compared with less than 1/3 in the U.S. currently). Will there be one or more protests because of rising COVID cases and deaths, against the Living with COVID policy, and because of government inaction, by the end of June 2023?

The protests must be major enough to be reported by reliable sources such as BBC, PBS, NPR, NYT, WSJ, CBS, CNN, etc., or meet Wikipedia's notability guideline.

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bought Ṁ20,000 of NO

Nothing COVID-related since the November–December protests.

predicted NO

Point of clarification: Evidence for this market is comes from either the above mentioned news outlets, or Wikipedia's notability guidelines. Implicit in that statement, are we to understand that these sources must explicitly state that the protests were due only to rising COVID cases and deaths and not due to any other reason? E.g. if the consensus of the plurality of news outlets say, "it was due to multiple grievances, including a rise in COVID cases and deaths," are we to understand that this market resolves to NO? Also, is this market effectively stating, "protest due to de facto government policies as they relate to COVID," or is it purely based upon, "COVID?" I have a hard time seeing people just protest because, "Argh! COVID!" I really don't think I have ever seen any protests with anyone chanting, "Boo on organisms without cellular structures!" It's always against another group of people, never the rate of virus infection itself.

@PatrickDelaney Since the title and description were not exclusive, they will remain inclusive: Because of COVID and others is because of COVID, just as the recent protests were not solely due to Zero COVID.

I mean, there are demonstrations related to global warming and other issues, no? The title and description say 'because of' 'due to'. I suspect a protest sparked by rising COVID cases would be against the government, and hence the description:

Will there be one or more protests because of rising COVID cases and deaths, against the Living with COVID policy, and because of government inaction, by the end of June 2023?

predicted NO

@XComhghall So really your market is just, "will there be protests in China in 2022," because anyone could at any point bring up COVID during any protests at any point...?

@PatrickDelaney Bringing up COVID is also subject to the notability requirement 'to be reported by reliable sources such as BBC, PBS, NPR, NYT, WSJ, CBS, CNN, etc., or meet Wikipedia's notability guideline.'

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