Will S&P 500 increase in April 2023?
117
2kṀ100k
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES

The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, and 4109.31 in March. Will it increase from open on 2023-04-03 (4102.20) to close on 2023-04-28 (4169.48)?

Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

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predictedYES

I noticed this market “closes on May 4” - is that to allow for any corrections or market-closing events? If not, I think this market should have resolved this past weekend on 5/1.

predictedYES

@EdwardOrsi I think the creator’s hope is to get as many people to bet on “free money” in order to collect more new trader bonuses, which was the case in a previous version

predictedYES

@EdwardOrsi should have resolved on 4/29 at 4 PM ET or soon after

predictedYES

@deagol As someone who has yet to post his first market, good to know 😀

predictedYES

→_→ Edward was correct. Sometimes the close price gets updated after 1 or several days. I want to have the correct number in the description (for future markets). I think description cannot be edited after resolution.

Yeah, market description cannot be edited after resolution.

predictedYES

That market was different. I lost money for creating it because there were only 2 traders…

predictedYES

closed at 4169.48 according to linked resolution source, resolves yes

predictedYES

Please resolve, thanks.

It’s 30 points below with 3 days left. You all from the otherside?

predictedYES

@deagol Presumably the market resolves based on 2023-04-30, and 2023-04-28 is just a typo from February. But in general, these financial prediction markets are not very efficient, so I wouldn't be surprised by turning a consistent profit just by paying attention and putting the time in to arbitrage.

@JacyAnthis It’s no tipo, the 28th is the last day the markets open in April, as the 30 falls on Sunday.

Maybe people were betting on good earnings today, which apparently did just come through.

predictedYES

@deagol I mean, it was good earnings. 30 points is nothing.

predictedNO

@XComhghall agree, not saying this won’t go YES, just not 77% likely

predictedYES

@deagol whoops, I see.

predictedNO

@XComhghall Yes, it went up 55 points today. I think it was overvalued a few days ago but seems reasonable now.

predictedYES

The market has 2023-04-28 as the final date, but April has 30 days.

predictedYES

@JacyAnthis 29 in leap years, otherwise 28. I think you got April and February mixed up.

predictedNO

I see the 04-03 open at 4102.2 not 4102.32

@deagol That happens sometimes. The open price shown below the chart before close seems to be corrected - I think once even after a day or so.

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