Will S&P 500 increase in April 2023?
117
176
2K
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES

The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, and 4109.31 in March. Will it increase from open on 2023-04-03 (4102.20) to close on 2023-04-28 (4169.48)?

Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

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predicted YES

I noticed this market “closes on May 4” - is that to allow for any corrections or market-closing events? If not, I think this market should have resolved this past weekend on 5/1.

predicted YES

@EdwardOrsi I think the creator’s hope is to get as many people to bet on “free money” in order to collect more new trader bonuses, which was the case in a previous version

predicted YES

@EdwardOrsi should have resolved on 4/29 at 4 PM ET or soon after

predicted YES

@deagol As someone who has yet to post his first market, good to know 😀

predicted YES

→_→ Edward was correct. Sometimes the close price gets updated after 1 or several days. I want to have the correct number in the description (for future markets). I think description cannot be edited after resolution.

bought Ṁ6,914 of YES

Yeah, market description cannot be edited after resolution.

predicted YES

That market was different. I lost money for creating it because there were only 2 traders…

predicted YES

closed at 4169.48 according to linked resolution source, resolves yes

predicted YES

Please resolve, thanks.

bought Ṁ416 of NO

It’s 30 points below with 3 days left. You all from the otherside?

predicted YES

@deagol Presumably the market resolves based on 2023-04-30, and 2023-04-28 is just a typo from February. But in general, these financial prediction markets are not very efficient, so I wouldn't be surprised by turning a consistent profit just by paying attention and putting the time in to arbitrage.

sold Ṁ7 of NO

@JacyAnthis It’s no tipo, the 28th is the last day the markets open in April, as the 30 falls on Sunday.

Maybe people were betting on good earnings today, which apparently did just come through.

predicted YES

@deagol I mean, it was good earnings. 30 points is nothing.

predicted NO

@XComhghall agree, not saying this won’t go YES, just not 77% likely

predicted YES

@deagol whoops, I see.

predicted NO

@XComhghall Yes, it went up 55 points today. I think it was overvalued a few days ago but seems reasonable now.

sold Ṁ92 of NO
predicted YES

The market has 2023-04-28 as the final date, but April has 30 days.

predicted YES

@JacyAnthis 29 in leap years, otherwise 28. I think you got April and February mixed up.

predicted NO

I see the 04-03 open at 4102.2 not 4102.32

bought Ṁ7 of YES

@deagol That happens sometimes. The open price shown below the chart before close seems to be corrected - I think once even after a day or so.