If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
173
4.5kṀ66kDec 31
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Context.
1. https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-elon-musk-do-something-as-a-re?r=V3JpdGVy
2. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1629901954234105857
Feb 26, 8:56pm: If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a dignified or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative/undignified)? → If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Edit: an "initiative" should be something relatively momentous, such a founding an organization or financing it for over $10M. Tweets, signatures, etc. don't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Elon Musk be one of Time's '100 Most Influential People in AI' in 2025?
87% chance
Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
9% chance
Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?
6% chance
It's end of 2025, a global AI moratorium is in effect, Eliezer Yudkowsky endorses it. What were its decisive causes?
Will Elon Musk try to use an AI model to sway people towards a political ideology before 2031?
35% chance
Will there be a public discussion between Elon Musk and Eliezer Yudkowsky?
5% chance
Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?
4% chance
Which well-known scientist will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a long recorded conversation with about AI risk, before 2026?
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
55% chance
Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?
5% chance