Resolves NO if any of the following:
A member of Manifold staff changes the market resolution for a different market and cites [the creator's trade in the different market after claiming to forego trading in the resolved market] as the only or main reason for the decision.
Public statement by Manifold staff claiming that this is their policy.
Resolves YES if any of the following:
A situation equivalent to the above is brought to my attention where Manifold staff evaluated the situation and decided against interfering despite acknowledging that the two markets did not have meaningfully different resolution criteria.
Public statement by Manifold staff claiming that this is their policy.
I will trade in this market and any similar markets to the extent of my capacity and disposition.
1,000People are also trading
It's unfortunate that this will probably never resolve in my favor. I believe the resolution would be YES, and I kind of doubt anyone's going to organically complain about this and get an investigation by the mods.
Creator creates Market A and promises not to trade there.
Someone creates Market B with resolution criterion tied very closely to A
Creator buys a gigarillion YES shares.
Creator resolves Market A YES.
Market B resolves YES.
Profit
@Wott Why not cut out the middle man and trade in your own market, and isn't there a huge risk Market B resolves NO, which risk would not obtain if you just traded in your own market. Sounds really byzantine to no point.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen because you haven't committed to not trading in the first market, and included it in the market description. If you trade there, traders will have a case for having it be N/Aed since the market description would become inaccurate.
And by assumption of this scenario, there is no risk trading in B since it resolve the same way as the market you control.
@Wott It won't resolve dependent on my market if the creator of that is honest. my thinking is that if someone is after my creation trying to poach trader bonuses, I am at least entitled to profit from his market.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen the issue is that trading in the other market creates a conflict of interest for resolving the original market.
to recap:
OG creates market A and vows not to trade in A
copycat creates market B that resolves the same way as A. OG has not made vows about B, so OG can trade in B.
OG buys YES shares in B.
OG is incentivized to resolve YES because then B will resolve YES and OG will profit.
OG hasn't broken any promises
you can also replace "identical" with "exactly the same except with an ϵ of difference ("will I win?" vs "will the other market resolve YES AND the sun won't go nova today?")
This has nothing to do with trader bonuses