Experiment on David Glidden's "Am I a reputable market creator?" market with PROB resolution
9
75Ṁ1436
resolved Apr 15
Resolved as
0.0%
David's market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/am-i-a-reputable-market-creator I will resolve this market to PROB = (The value David's linked market resolves to - 95%) * 20. If his market resolves to less than or equal to 95%, I will resolve this to 0%. If his resolves to 100%, I will resolve this to 100%. If his resolves N/A, this will resolve N/A. If his resolves to PROB, this will resolve to PROB = (David's PROB - 95%) * 20. For example, if David's market resolves to 97.5%, this question will resolve to PROB = (97.5 - 95) * 20 = 50%. This is an experiment to see what impact if any the creation of this market will have on David's market. I'm not sure whether this will lead to David Glidden's market closing significantly lower than it otherwise would or if attempts to manipulate the price on this market by buying "No" on David's market will just be corrected by more "Yes" buyers on his market, leading to his market having higher volume. I also don't know if by creating this question I'm just paying to mess up prices on here or if it might be profitable. Let's see! Apr 8, 1:26am: Thanks to Undox's question for making me realize I wrote the resolution criteria totally incorrectly. Corrected version: "I will resolve this market to PROB = (The probability that David's linked market closes at - 95%) * 20. If his market closes at less than or equal to 95%, I will resolve this to 0%." Disregard this whole paragraph; it's not what I meant: "I will resolve this market to PROB = (The value David's linked market resolves to - 95%) * 20. If his market resolves to less than or equal to 95%, I will resolve this to 0%. If his resolves to 100%, I will resolve this to 100%. If his resolves N/A, this will resolve N/A. If his resolves to PROB, this will resolve to PROB = (David's PROB - 95%) * 20."
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I meant to buy a lot more No's but mis-judged the end-time by a minute and didn't get to make my last trade. (Adding this text to my trade after I resolved the question.)
CFMM ... such fun.
oh wait I didn't calc that right oops
I think I'd make around 200 if this market resolves to 0%, and I spent 52 only so far to keep it under 95. I can still spend around 100 on David's one and still turn out a profit overall, and for a whale to beat me there they'd need to put around 5k. I don't find it likely that someone does, but I guess I'm ready for that risk.
You will probably win, but there is significant risk. I on the other hand had the same big NO bet as you, but buy buying YES I have now got a neutral position. I can watch with popcorn.
I have made 280 profit over the 2 markets. (I trust dglid). You have risk: if a whale has 5k you need 250 to balance that out to keep it <95%, which they take from you as profit. Some whales have >10k.
I don't understand why you're doing this! You can't win! I feel like I'm missing something and I'll lose so much money (but if not I'll make banks :)
I'm winning this, my fellow trader. You gotta spend hundos by hundos. Doesn't sound very economical. Maybe I'm missing something obvious here, in which case oops
This isn't nearly meta enough. Here you go: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/experiment-on-william-kielys-experi
Undox, I updated the description. Sorry for writing the resolution criteria totally wrong the first time. What matters to this question's resolution is not what David resolves his market to, but rather what the final probability is at the close of his market. E.g. a "99.2% chance" on his market at closing means I'll resolve this question to PROB = 84% here (because 84% = (99.2-95)*20).
What if his market resolves YES?
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