Am I a reputable market creator?
16
111Ṁ2762resolved Apr 15
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is my attempt at procuring from the Manifold community a reputation score/rating for myself as a market creator. How it works:
* I commit to resolving this market YES.
* I’m opening this market at 50% to ensure at least some trading and to suggest that I find the answer to this question valuable enough to lose M$ myself.
* If my reputation is good enough that most believe me (and believe I am not prone to making a mistake when resolving this market), this market should quickly push toward 100% as traders stake their profit on my reputation.
* The final value that this market ends on upon close tells me my reputation rating/score; 100% = perfectly reputable.
* To further gauge my reputation, I encourage a third party to create a separate market asking when I’ll resolve this market, perhaps within X time that would be considered reputable, as a scalar market, or as a free response market with bins of different timeframes.
Apr 15, 6:46am: closes at 90%; looks like the derivative market was significant enough volume to distort this one. Resolving YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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There are now two related questions:
https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/experiment-on-david-gliddens-am-i-a
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/experiment-on-william-kielys-experi
I made a weird PROB resolution question referencing yours!
https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/experiment-on-david-gliddens-am-i-a
This is an awesome idea, but it could be more awesome.
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/am-i-awesome