I recently decided that I'm not gonna bother getting more COVID booster shots unless they're updated to new strains. If I stick to this policy (I'll prolly still get updated boosters), what's the likelihood that I get COVID in 2023?

• I had COVID in August 2022.

• I have had 4 doses of the original Pfizer/Moderna shots, and I got the bivalent booster in October 2022.

• If I get another booster of the currently available bivalent mRNA, or a booster targeting the original strain, I'll resolve N/A. I haven't researched available shots super deeply, so if I wind up getting some more obscure shot, I'll resolve N/A if my best judgment says that the shot is not "more up to date" than my previous shots.

The other leg of this pair of conditional markets is https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditional-on-getting-more-of-the

The non-conditional underlying event market is https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2023