I recently decided that I'm not gonna bother getting more COVID booster shots unless they're updated to new strains. If I abandon this policy and get more of the same old shots, what's the likelihood that I get COVID in 2023?
I had COVID in August 2022.
I have had 4 doses of the original Pfizer/Moderna shots, and I got the bivalent booster in October 2022.
This market resolves N/A if the paired market does not, and otherwise resolves YES/NO according to whether I get COVID. Basically, this resolves N/A if I don't get any more of the "same old" booster by Jan 1, 2024.
The other leg of this pair of conditional markets is https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditioned-on-not-getting-more-of
The non-conditional underlying event market is https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2023