Conditional on taking RaDVaC, will I get COVID in 2022?
39%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$42 bet
https://radvac.org/ has published a recipe for a DIY COVID-19 vaccine, which has been intermittently updated as new strains emerge. I'm trying to estimate whether it would be worth taking. If I take RaDVaC by 1 August 2022, this will be resolved the same way as https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2022-67b0e9b79c1d . Otherwise, it will be resolved N/A. Jun 21, 11:39pm: If I get COVID before I take any RaDVaC, I will resolve N/A. Jun 22, 12:50pm: Here's the other arm of this decision market: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditional-on-not-taking-radvac-wi
TANSTAAFL
TANSTAAFL bought M$1 of NO
betting to follow - this is fascinating
0
Forrest
No idea of the answer, but adding some liquidity here out of interest.
0