This market predicts when China's nominal GDP per capita will first reach at least 20% of the United States' nominal GDP per capita.

Context

As of 2025, China's nominal GDP per capita is approximately $13,915, while the US's is around $85,810, making China's GDP per capita about 16.2% of the US's. Based on IMF projections, China's per capita GDP is expected to grow from $13,300 in 2024 to $18,600 by 2030.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the first year in which any reputable economic source (IMF, World Bank, etc.) reports that China's nominal GDP per capita has reached at least 20% of the US's nominal GDP per capita. If this threshold is not reached by the end of 2050, the market will resolve to 'After 2050'.

Sources for verification:

• IMF Data Mapper

• World Bank Data

  Resolution criteria

  • Resolves to the answer bucket containing the first calendar year Y in which China’s nominal GDP per capita is at least 20.0% of the United States’ nominal GDP per capita: ratio = (China NY.GDP.PCAP.CD) / (US NY.GDP.PCAP.CD) ≥ 0.2000, using the same year’s values in current US dollars. Primary source: World Bank WDI. Verify at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN-US .

  • If World Bank has not published values for year Y for either country by June 30 of year Y+1, use IMF WEO “GDP per capita, current prices (U.S. dollars)” (NGDPDPC) for USA and CHN from the latest April/October release. Verify at: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/USA/CHN .

  • If the first qualifying year falls within 2026–2030, 2031–2035, 2036–2040, 2041–2045, 2046–2050, or after 2050, the corresponding bucket resolves YES and all others NO. If the first qualifying year is before 2026, this market resolves N/A (answers are not exhaustive). Revisions after resolution will not change the outcome.

  Background

  • Latest published (2024) nominal GDP per capita: China $13,303; US $85,810, implying ~15.5% (13,303/85,810). Source: World Bank WDI. (data.worldbank.org)

  • IMF WEO (Apr 2025) projections imply China ≈ $18.6k and US ≈ $105.4k in 2030, a ratio of ~17.7%—below the 20% threshold. (IMF-tracked series via MacroMicro.) (en.macromicro.me)

  Considerations

  • Nominal (current USD) figures are exchange-rate sensitive; RMB/USD moves can materially shift the ratio year-to-year.

  • Publication lags: World Bank typically posts year Y data in Y+1; IMF WEO updates are in April/Oct. This market resolves as soon as the specified source shows the threshold. (data.imf.org)

  • Because answer options begin at 2026 and addAnswersMode is disabled, an earlier crossing (≤2025) would force an N/A resolution.