Will Trump outperform polls in South Carolina primary?
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690Ṁ920resolved Feb 25
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I will take the 538 average (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/) on the day of election and compare that to the actual result. If his actual result is higher, this resolves YES, otherwise NO.
So far in both Iowa and New Hampshire Trump slightly underperformed compared to the polling.
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Resolves NO. The last 538 SC primary polls showed Trump with 61.6% and he slightly underperformed with 59.8%.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.