Will Trump outperform polls in South Carolina primary?
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Ṁ920resolved Feb 25
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I will take the 538 average (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/) on the day of election and compare that to the actual result. If his actual result is higher, this resolves YES, otherwise NO.
So far in both Iowa and New Hampshire Trump slightly underperformed compared to the polling.
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Resolves NO. The last 538 SC primary polls showed Trump with 61.6% and he slightly underperformed with 59.8%.