SCC is over. Magnus wins.

Magnus beat Alireza by a larger margin than he beat Hans.

Hans > Alireza

Why couldn't Alireza throw like that against Hikaru?

• Hans estimated 35-40% Firouja in his post-4th place interview.

• I just moved the market from 32% to 40% because I think it's closer to a toss-up. Hikaru beat Hans by a larger margin than Magnus did.

• Though Magnus said he wasn't motivated against Hans.

• And also Magnus lost the 4 games once he had already clinched the match.

• Alireza is only 21.

• Alireza won the BCC, making him twice superior to Hikaru recently.

I think if it weren't for the fact that Magnus is more motivated to play Alireza than Hans, I'd actually have Alireza as the 51% favorite. As is I'll say 45% Alireza.

@WilliamKiely correction above: Magnus lost his last 4 games against Hans.

• Hikaru credited his dominance over Hans to Hans' lack of knowledge of the openings. Hikaru said Levy's opponents (~2300) knew the openings better than Hans did. So perhaps Hikaru defeatinf Hans by a large margin than Magnus did is not that indicative.

@WilliamKiely We'll this analysis goes out the windows. Magnus is super dominant right now. These players are very streaky. Who would have thought Magnus would be up by more against Alireza than he was against Hans?

@WilliamKiely I think Magnus is relatively consistent, but Alireza is somewhat streaky. He can beat anyone, but he can also randomly play way below his level.

Put 2000 on Magnus NO

I'm thinking of putting a large limit order on Hikaru YES (at roughly market rates), but probably won't before early September in order to not lock up mana. Anyone interested in taking the other side?

@Nightsquared good thing I switched to Magnus no

All of the 8 previous SCCs were won by either Magnus or Hikaru. Hikaru won five times (2018-22), and Magnus won three times (2016, 17, and 23).

Remaining Players after Round 1:

• Wesley So vs. Hans Niemann

• Alireza Firouzja vs. Fabiano Caruana

• Hikaru Nakamura vs. Ian Nepomniachtchi

• Magnus Carlsen vs. Arjun Erigaisi

So "Other" includes: Hans, Nepo, and Arjun

@Weezing just confirming that “Other” includes what it says: “A bet on Other automatically includes any answer added in the future.” Which includes Hans.

Not anymore, Hans is now a separate answer. Other is all other players which are not listed individually and none of those players are left.

What it means is that if you bet on Other BEFORE extra option is added, you will automatically get shares in the newly added answer equal to the shares you have in other. But this is now irrelevent because all players in semis are already added.

@FabioTran

Are you sure, @Weezing ? I had shares at “others” prior to you adding Hans and it didn’t give me any. Perhaps @mods can help us out: how “others” behave after you add an option. Is the text that pops up when you click at “i” accurate?

Looking at your trade history, you bought 47 YES shares of Other on 1st of August, then Hans was added on 8th of August, which gave you 47 shares also for Hans. You sold those shares on 10th of August and bought 63 NO shares on Hans. You also bough additional shares of Other, but this was after Hans was already added, which will be only used for additional options if any would added.

I think I need to see this in a desktop. In the mobile; the sale of the shares don’t show.

You can see it in your user profile. Click on current position and it will show history. I am on mobile as well.

Now I see it, thank you! but I can’t see the transaction that gave me the Hans shares. Is it implied?

Yes it is automatic, once you already have position in Other and someone adds another option, you get equal shares in the newly added option.

The matches start tomorrow with Hikaru vs Jospem and Duda vs Arjun.

I made markets for the individual matches as well:

https://manifold.markets/Weezing/will-hikaru-nakamura-beat-jose-mart

https://manifold.markets/Weezing/will-jankrzysztof-duda-beat-arjun-e

New qualified players (via Titled Tuesday):

• Jan-Krzysztof Duda

• Alexey Sarana

• Tuan MinhLe

• Jose Eduardo Martinez Alcantara (Jospem)

• Alexander Grischuk

• Hans Niemann