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You know it was a wild result when nobody made over 50¢

Misclicked Xi JinPing as NO and this type of market cant be unresolved unfortunately. I will atleast send @BobbyLee his mana.

@traders

I went though the transcript here (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411) and here is how I plan to resolve it right now (question, resolution, occasionally comment and in case of yes resolution also relevant part of transcript). However it is definitely possible I missed something (I did not read the entire thing, mostly searched for the relevant parts), so I will leave this up for a day for you to voice disagreements and if there are no objections until then I will resolve it this way.

• Skibidi toilet: no

• Jailed journalists: yes

Tucker Carlson: Evan Gershkovich, that’s a completely different, I mean, this is a thirty two year old newspaper reporter.

Vladimir Putin: He committed something different.

Tucker Carlson: He is just a journalist

Vladimir Putin: He is not just a journalist, I reiterate, he is a journalist who was secretly getting confidential information. ...

• Transgender bathrooms: no

• Kidnapping of Ukrainian children and forced adoption into Russian families: no

• Bolshoi Theatre: no

• Putin's death in December: no

• Anglo-Saxons: no

• Putin's children/grandchildren: no

• Bucha: no

• Orban: yes

Tucker Carlson: Have you told Viktor Orbán that he can have a part of Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin: Never. I have never told him. Not a single time. We have not even had

any conversation on that, but I actually know for sure that Hungarians who live there

wanted to get back to their historical land.

• Nord Stream 2: yes

Vladimir Putin: After all, it is not only about Nord

Stream-1, which was blown up, and Nord Stream-2 was damaged, but one pipe is safe

and sound, and gas can be supplied to Europe through it, but Germany does not open it. We are ready, please.

• Elon Musk: yes

Tucker Carlson: What do you think of that?

Vladimir Putin: Well, I think there’s no stopping Elon Musk, he will do as he sees fit.

Nevertheless, you need to find some common ground with him, search for ways

to persuade him. I think he’s a smart person, I truly believe he is. So you need to reach

an agreement with him because this process needs to be formalized and subjected

to certain rules.

• Putin’s Health: no

• Bio labs in Ukraine: no

• Xi Jinping: yes

Vladimir Putin: I will tell you. But let me finish the previous thought. We, together with

my colleague and friend President Xi Jinping, set a goal to reach 200 billion dollars

of mutual trade with China this year. We have exceeded this level. According to our

figures, our bilateral trade with China totals already 230 billion, and the Chinese

statistics says it is 240 billion dollars.

• Freedom of speech in Russia: no

• Wagner Group: no

• US Iraq war: leaning no

  • He is likely referring to the 2004 US Iraq war here, but it is very vague reference.

Vladimir Putin: Now, I'll tell you what happened in this regard with Ukraine

in 2008, although it's being discussed, I’m not going to open a secret to you, say anything new. Nevertheless, after that, we tried to build relations in different ways. For example, the events in the Middle East, in Iraq, we were building relations with the United States in a very soft, prudent,

cautious manner.

• Azov: no

• Ukraine is a fake country: yes

Vladimir Putin: So in this sense, we have every reason to affirm that Ukraine is an artificial state that was shaped at Stalin’s will.

• Russia is the last bastion of traditional values: no

• Trump: yes

Vladimir Putin: I had such personal relationships with Trump as well.

• Denazification: yes

Vladimir Putin: No, we haven't achieved our aims yet, because one of them is

denazification.

• Minsk Agreements: yes

Vladimir Putin: And what triggered the latest events? Firstly, the current Ukrainian leadership declared that it would not implement the Minsk Agreements.

• Zelensky: yes

Vladimir Putin: Well, if the Zelensky administration in Ukraine refused to negotiate,

I assume that they did it under the instruction from Washington

• Soviet Union: yes

Vladimir Putin: We are coming to the point where the Soviet Ukraine was established. Then, in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. And everything that Russia had generously bestowed on Ukraine was ”dragged away“ by the latter.

• Woke west: no

• Biden: yes

Vladimir Putin: Same here, if you are interested in what Mr. President Biden responded to me, ask him. At any rate, I talked to him about it.

• Russian invasion was caused by NATO: leaning yes

  • He never said it 100% clearly IIRC, but here I think he clearly points to the fact that the trigger for the first invasion for him was the Orange revolution/Maidan and it was problem because it meant expansion of NATO.

Tucker Carlson: So, that was eight years before the current conflict started. What was

the trigger for you? What was the moment where you decided you had to do this?

Vladimir Putin: : Initially, it was the coup in Ukraine that provoked the conflict. ...

We would have never considered to even lift a finger, if it hadn’t been for the bloody developments on Maidan. Because we agreed with the fact that after the collapse of the Soviet Union our borders should be along the borders of former Union’s republics. We agreed to that. But we never agreed to NATO’s expansion and moreover we never agreed that Ukraine would

be in NATO. We did not agree to NATO bases there without any discussion with us. For decades we kept asking: don’t do this, don’t do that.

@Weezing I agree 100%, I agree as well on the NATO position towards yes, tagging @shankypanky to proofread as well :)

@Lion oh hell did I neglect to bet on this market!? (going now to read the comment while mourning having missed it lol)

@shankypanky I wish that I'd have missed it. I was terrible at forecasting. Seriously, I didn't expect 2 hours and a talk about Elon Musk.

@Weezing @Lion okay on the upside (for anyone but me?) I'm agnostic here because I don't hold any positions. reading these notes I agree with all of the resolutions including NATO/Ukraine resolving Yes. the Iraq option should resolve No.

nice, thorough, orderly resolution Weezing 😍 good notes

Thanks @Lion for the timestamps. That will make it a lot easier to resolve. I will get on it as soon as I can (should be sometime today).

@Weezing list of things (at least I'm pretty confident in) that should resolve NO, you can confirm or deny them after you've watched and everyone else is welcome as well to argue over it:

• Putin's health

• Bio labs in Ukraine

• Freedom of speech in Russia

• Wagner Group

• Woke west

• Azov

  "Ukraine is a fake country" and "Russian invasion was caused by NATO" were directly implied and described, but not said as expressions. (at least as far as I know)
  

@Weezing @soweliSon just posted a link to a transscript:

"The Kremlin has released an official English transcript of the interview.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411 "

I like how the interview has happened, but not enough people can be bothered watching to correct the prices

@DavidJohnston lol no it’s closed we can’t trade on it

@Bayesian Oh right

@DavidJohnston see this market, there are still some uncertainties due to the translater and that most people watched it sped up and at least I was unable to pick up everything https://manifold.markets/soweliSon/what-will-be-true-of-the-tucker-car

was mentioned for sure, don't have a timestamp for him, but see the other market as well

term was used for sure (I even think multiple times), I don't have the exact timestampt, should be about minute 58

see as well this comment: https://manifold.markets/soweliSon/what-will-be-true-of-the-tucker-car#whihq5maku

Evan Gershkovich was mentioned at 1:51:20 and they talked about him

20:46

1:49:40

1:36:39

about 01:11.40

about 1:24:57

about 01:04:00

Soviet Union is mentioned multiple times, ie about 23:30 and 23:45

I'm not up to date on the lunaticfascistosphere - is there anything political or otherwise special about the theater that they might talk about?