Grand Chess Tour Sinquefield Cup 2024 - Prop Bets

Ṁ2kṀ26k

resolved Aug 28

Resolved

Ding finishes last

Resolved

Ding wins a game

Resolved

YES

Caruana loses a game

Resolved

YES

A young player wins the tournament (Alireza, Pragg, Gukesh, Nodirbek)

Resolved

YES

Alireza will finish in the top 3

Resolved

An old player wins the tournament (Caruana, Nepo, MVL)

Resolved

YES

There will be at least 8 decisive games (there is 45 games total)

Resolved

YES

At least 2 players will draw all of their games

Resolved

YES

Pragg will finish in the top half of the table

Resolved

YES

American players (Caruana, So) will place better than Indian players (Pragg, Gukesh).

Resolved

Ding will finish with an even score or better

Resolved

Gukesh will finish ahead of Pragg

Resolved

YES

Alireza will finish ahead of Nodirbek

Resolved

MVL, Anish and Ding will all finish in the bottom half of the table

Resolved

The winner will score exactly +2 (not counting tiebreaks)

Resolved

YES

White side loses 2 or more games

Resolved

Nepo will finish on equal or more points than Wesley So and Anish Giri (independently)

Resolved

YES

Both Ding and Nepo will lose rating points when the tournament ends

Resolved

Relative ranking of the youngsters will stay the same at the start and at the end of the tournament (starting ranking: 1. Gukesh, 2. Nodirbek, 3. Alireza, 4. Pragg)

Resolved

Caruana will lose rating points when the tournament (compared to starting rating) ends

You are welcome to add more options.

Sinquefield Cup will be played between August 19 and August 28. Format is a single round robin. More info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-gct-sinquefield-cup

There are 10 players (current rating in brackets):

Fabiano Caruana (2793)
Ding Liren (2745, the current World Champion)
Alireza Firouzja (2751)
Praggnanandhaa R (2749)
Gukesh D (2766)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov (2762)
Ian Nepomniachtchi (2767)
Anish Giri (2738)
Wesley So (2751)
Maxime Vachiere-Lagrave (2721)

===================================

Here he is a market for the winner:

===================================

Rules:

I will be betting if the option has objective resolution criteria. If there is any uncertainty I can ask mods to decide resolution instead.
If you are unsure about some underspecified option, ask in the comments before betting
Unless stated otherwise "highest"/"most"/"least" etc. includes ties ("Player has the most points at the end")
Options that refer to final rankings (last, first, top 3, ...) include tiebreaks if there are any. But if there are no tiebreaks, then for example "last" will resolve to YES even if 2 players share the last place, or if an option is top 3, it will resolve yes even if the player is on shared 3rd-4th place.
Options thar refer to a game result ("X wins a game") only includes classical games, not Rapid/Blitz tiebreaks. IIRC GCT events don't have tiebreaks for other places than the first.
Options that involve rankings do not count rankings mid game, we always wait untill full round finishes
Dictionary (will be updates if needed):
- Minus (-)/Plus (+) score: Draw is 0, win is +1, loss is -1. Sum of all results of the player determines their score. It does not include tiebreaks.
- Rating points = live FIDE ELO rating determined by https://2700chess.com/
- A decisive game: win or loss
- TPR - Tournament performance rating (https://www.hirmulintu.fi/juha/chess/en/performance_calculator.shtml)

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ642
2		Ṁ324
3		Ṁ139
4		Ṁ130
5		Ṁ123

People are also trading

Chess Prop Bets: 2026 World Chess Championships

Sort by:

bought Ṁ283 YES

This was fun, thank you for putting it together, @Weezing!

Thanks, I will probably do another one for Chess Olympiad.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Right now, the question is whether Fabi can defeat Giri or if it will be a draw!

@Weezing how will you resolve this? Will you do an average of their positions? Currently, it is expected that Caruana will place better than Pragg and Gukesh, but So will place the same as Pragg and Gukesh.

Yes I want to use average of their placements, so in this case it would be YES. I forgot to specify it in the rules specifically, so hopefully we are all on the same page.

Yes!

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Weezing Is it in the official fide rating, ie rounded rating points?

sold Ṁ37 NO

Or will you use the chess results stats to resolve this answer?

bought Ṁ15 YES

@FabioTran I will use live rating - 2700chess.com, currently Fabi is on +0.3. So no rounding, even if he loses 0.1 it is a YES.

Btw player is considered to be in the bottom (and top) half of the table even if he is at shared 4th to 6th place for example IF there is no tiebreak system in place. I think for these events there is tiebreak only for the first place @Calibrate

sold Ṁ140 NO

Thanks for the clarification!

sold Ṁ47 YES

The prizes are distinct for each position, so I guess there is a tiebreak system in place. I couldn't find the regulation of the Sinquefield Cup to confirm it.