Resolves YES/NO as soon as a major, credible news source calls that Will Stancil either has or has not won the Minnesota House District 61A seat.
Will Stancil has been prominent on certain corners of Twitter lately for being extremely vocal about topics like economic sentiment. He just announced his campaign - will his Twitter prominence translate to political success?
@ShakedKoplewitz my dislike for stancil aside, googling for news shows a former aide of the incumbent running (and nothing on stancil). So I'm guessing he loses, since twitter fame usually doesn't translate to real fame.
The incumbent, Hornstein, won in a landslide in 2022 and just announced 5 days ago he's not running again. When he initially took the seat he ran unopposed in his primary as well.
I'm thinking ~66% odds, with a lot of that being tied up in him winning unopposed, and some being the chance he wins against a serious challenger.