Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if any of the following three conditions occur at any point between July 17, 2026, and 12:00 PM EST on January 20, 2029:

1. Donald Trump leaves office: Donald J. Trump ceases to hold the office of President of the United States. This includes resignation, removal via impeachment conviction, removal under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, or death.

2. Family member indicted: Melania Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, Tiffany Trump, Barron Trump, or Jared Kushner is formally indicted on state or federal criminal charges (or if a criminal information is filed by prosecutors). Civil lawsuits or civil complaints do not qualify.

3. Democrats win control of the Senate: The Democratic Party gains control of the U.S. Senate. This is defined as holding a majority of seats (either at least 51 seats, or 50 seats plus a Democratic or independent Vice President casting the tie-breaking vote) for legislative organization. This includes independent senators who officially caucus with the Democrats. It applies to control established during the 119th Congress, the 120th Congress (sworn in on January 3, 2027), or the 121st Congress (sworn in on January 3, 2029).

If none of these three conditions occur before 12:00 PM EST on January 20, 2029, this market resolves to NO.

Sources for verification:

• U.S. Senate leadership and seat tracking: senate.gov

• Official executive changes: whitehouse.gov

• For indictments: Official Department of Justice press releases, court dockets, or consensus reporting from major news outlets (such as AP, Reuters, New York Times, or Wall Street Journal).

Background

• Presidential Term: Donald J. Trump is serving his second term as President, which is scheduled to end at noon on January 20, 2029.

• Senate Control: As of mid-2026, Republicans hold a 53–47 majority in the U.S. Senate. The November 3, 2026 midterm elections represent a key opportunity for Democrats to flip control of the chamber. The subsequent 2028 election winners will be seated on January 3, 2029, which also falls before the market's resolution deadline.

• Legal Context: While members of Trump's family have historically faced various investigations, this market requires a new, formal criminal indictment to be returned after the market's creation.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.