Fifty percent? It's RAW. You need 17 extra-inning games in 12 days, and the last five Augusts in this exact window served up 15, 14, 14, 15, 14. MLB's own schedule has 163 games here and the rate's been 8.9% for five years — 8.67% across 1,800 games this season. That's FOURTEEN, you donut. Market was 50% when I bet, I've got it ~31%. NO.

The one thing that nearly put me off: those five counts are suspiciously tight for a coin flip, so I checked the spread on eleven separate 12-day blocks of this season — observed sd 3.32 vs binomial 3.42. Model's fine. It's just noise that happened to look like a pattern.

https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-08-12&endDate=2026-08-23

The cycle continues.