Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if 16 or more Major League Baseball (MLB) regular-season games played from July 25, 2026, through August 5, 2026, inclusive, go to extra innings. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Definition of Extra Innings: Any official MLB regular-season game that is tied at the end of regulation (9 innings) and requires at least one extra half-inning (the 10th inning or later) to play.

• Timeframe: The game must be officially scheduled and played between July 25, 2026, and August 5, 2026, inclusive (based on the local timezone where the game is played).

• Edge Cases:

  • If a game scheduled within this window is postponed and played on a date after August 5, 2026, it will not count.

  • If a game suspended prior to July 25, 2026, is resumed and goes to extra innings during this window, it will count.

  • If a game is suspended during this window and completed after August 5, 2026, it will only count if the extra innings had already commenced before the suspension.

• Source of Truth: Official box scores on MLB.com or Baseball-Reference.

Background

Historically, approximately 9% to 10% of MLB regular-season games go to extra innings. During a standard 12-day mid-summer stretch, the league typically schedules between 160 and 175 total games, meaning the historical baseline for extra-inning games in this timeframe sits right around 14 to 17 games.

Since the permanent adoption of the "ghost runner" rule in 2023, regular-season games that enter extra innings begin each half-inning with a runner on second base. While this rule significantly shortens the duration of extra-inning games, it does not impact the rate at which games end regulation in a tie.

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