Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions is met on or before January 31, 2032:
California authorizes real-money online poker: Legislation is signed into law, or a voter-approved ballot initiative is passed, that officially legalizes and regulates real-money online poker within the state of California. Sweepstakes, social, or promotional poker models do not satisfy this condition.
A feature film grosses over $3.5 Billion: Any single feature film reaches a cumulative worldwide theatrical box office gross of $3,500,000,001 or more in nominal (unadjusted) USD.
If neither condition is met by 11:59 PM PT on January 31, 2032, the market will resolve to NO.
Verification Sources:
For California legislation: California Legislative Information or major industry outlets like Card Player or PokerListings.
For box office figures: Box Office Mojo All-Time Box Office or The Numbers All-Time Worldwide Grosses.
Background
California Online Poker: California is the most populous US state, but efforts to legalize online poker have been stalled for over a decade due to disagreements among stakeholders, including tribal casinos and cardrooms. As of 2026, real-money online poker remains unregulated, and a ban on dual-currency sweepstakes poker sites (Bill AB 831) took effect on January 1, 2026.
Box Office Milestone: The current nominal box office record is held by Avatar (2009) at approximately $2.92 billion, followed by Avengers: Endgame (2019) at approximately $2.79 billion. No film has officially crossed the $3 billion threshold in unadjusted global box office history.
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