Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if California's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in current dollars (nominal GDP) for the year 2026 is at least $4.400 trillion ($4,400,000,000,000), according to the official preliminary annual data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The market will resolve to NO if the official annual figure is less than $4.400 trillion.

• Source of Truth: The initial release of the BEA’s news release for "Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 4th Quarter and Year 2026" (typically published in March or April 2027). The data can be verified directly on the BEA GDP by State page.

• Revisions: Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for the full-year 2026 nominal GDP. Subsequent retro-active annual revisions published in later quarters or years will not be considered.

Background

In May 2026, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) reported that California's nominal GDP reached $4.3 trillion in 2025, representing roughly 14% of the total U.S. economy ($30.7 trillion).

According to official BEA data, California's precise current-dollar GDP for 2025 was $4.251 trillion. To cross the $4.400 trillion threshold in 2026, California's nominal economy will need to expand by approximately 3.5% over the 2025 BEA baseline.

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