Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?
41
10kṀ87272026
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November 2025 is lower than 4.2%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2025 by the BLS, typically found here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will the unemployment rate be in June 2025?
📈 US unemployment above 4.5% before 2029?
82% chance
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 5.5% in 2025?
13% chance
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 6.5% in 2025?
17% chance
Will the US be at full employment in December 2025?
19% chance
US unemployment above 5% in 2025?
28% chance
Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?
52% chance
Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?
85% chance
Will unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
24% chance
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11% chance