Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?
Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?
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From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), the percentage of the population living below the poverty line in Argentina (Población bajo la línea de pobreza) in the first half of 2025 is less than 41.7%. If the percentage is greater than or equal to 41.7%, this question resolves as No.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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