From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), the percentage of the population living below the poverty line in Argentina (Población bajo la línea de pobreza) in the first half of 2025 is less than 41.7%. If the percentage is greater than or equal to 41.7%, this question resolves as No.
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@deagol But I'm a huge milei bull and always have been...
I probably misread it, now when I got the notification I thought it said compared to second half of 2025 meaning economy getting worse. That's probably what I thought then, I dunno
This is why I wish I wrote my reasonings more often so I could figure out what my mistake was for the future...
The poverty rate fell by 10 points between end of H2 2023 and end of H1 2025.
Sources:
In Spanish
INDEC Argentina:
https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel3-Tema-4-46
El País:
Infobae:
La Nación:
Bloomberg Línea:
ABC es
La Vanguardia:
In English
Bloomberg:
Buenos Aires Times:
Time to resolve @WalterMartin @mods .
@MiguelSanchezB please read the resolution criteria! This market resolves based on how the metaculus market resolves.
The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.
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