Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?
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resolved Oct 5
Resolved
YES

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), the percentage of the population living below the poverty line in Argentina (Población bajo la línea de pobreza) in the first half of 2025 is less than 41.7%. If the percentage is greater than or equal to 41.7%, this question resolves as No.

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There's no way I bet NO on this, I'm so confused

@FergusArgyll January seems like ages ago, maybe things looked different then?

@deagol But I'm a huge milei bull and always have been...

I probably misread it, now when I got the notification I thought it said compared to second half of 2025 meaning economy getting worse. That's probably what I thought then, I dunno

This is why I wish I wrote my reasonings more often so I could figure out what my mistake was for the future...

The poverty rate fell by 10 points between end of H2 2023 and end of H1 2025.

Sources:

In Spanish

INDEC Argentina:

https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel3-Tema-4-46

https://t.co/CCPuXyM2YV

El País:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/elpais.com/argentina/2025-09-25/la-pobreza-en-argentina-cae-10-puntos-desde-el-inicio-del-gobierno-de-milei.html%3foutputType=amp

Infobae:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/25/la-pobreza-fue-del-316-en-el-primer-semestre-de-2025-y-registro-una-significativa-baja/%3foutputType=amp-type

La Nación:

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-motorola-rvo3&sca_esv=9ae03e477ff97b33&sxsrf=AE3TifPsk0iDrwEiOIvvzHcP77BbfcnYBA:1758847855766&q=pobreza+argentina&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AIIjpHx4nJjfGojPVHhEACUHPiMQKBUqzTkgNGGtr-5xqnF46iLI5SEy8rWXEv5KXhfuU6crOO6MsyPMfQe474TNoIqhMv6EFeo-CxG8PJMs7egR6NnwQyoiAz8Y9NbIjt9m30UqLieHWw4xeeJu_aU1l21QY5XFhUeJ6D0Gb23fAyCf3M2mjm9ZlORDdEijFmjVWc67-XZtk6iWS62ajBmUWF3hSZIkoQ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiItqDtmvWPAxW4SzABHX9bB4UQ0pQJegQIERAB&biw=432&bih=834&dpr=2.5

Bloomberg Línea:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/argentina/pobreza-bajo-en-argentina-durante-el-primer-semestre-del-2025-segun-el-indec/%3foutputType=amp

ABC es

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.abc.es/sociedad/pobreza-urbana-argentina-baja-316-primer-semestre-20250925220012-vi_amp.html

La Vanguardia:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20250926/11098303/tasa-oficial-pobreza-decrece-argentina-drama-social-agenciaslv20250926.amp.html

In English

Bloomberg:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/poverty-in-argentina-falls-to-lowest-level-since-2018&ved=2ahUKEwiO6vv9m_WPAxUOTDABHe9MNaIQxfQBKAB6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw25rgrCgPdJwugvq5yshl6_

Buenos Aires Times:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.batimes.com.ar/news/amp/argentina/poverty-in-argentina-fell-to-316-in-the-first-half-of-2025-reports-indec.phtml

Time to resolve @WalterMartin @mods .

@MiguelSanchezB please read the resolution criteria! This market resolves based on how the metaculus market resolves.

@WalterMartin metaculus resolved YES

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