Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES for any month in 2026 where Brazil's month-on-month (MoM) inflation rate exceeds Argentina's, based on official data from:

• Argentina: https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom

• Brazil: https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-rate-mom

The market will resolve to NO if Brazil's MoM inflation rate remains below Argentina's for all months in 2025.

Resolution will occur as soon as official data becomes available confirming that Brazil's inflation rate has exceeded Argentina's for any month, or after all 2026 data has been published showing no such occurrence.

Background

Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 31.80% in September 2025 from 33.60% in August, reflecting a sharp decline from mid-2024 as the government's austerity program took hold. Argentina's MoM inflation was 2.10% in September 2025.

In contrast, Brazil's inflation rate increased to 5.17% in September 2025 from 5.13% in August, with MoM inflation of 0.48% from August to September 2025. Brazil's inflation has remained substantially lower than Argentina's throughout 2025.

Considerations

Argentina's inflation trajectory depends heavily on exchange rate stability and fiscal discipline. Any significant depreciation of the peso could reignite inflationary pressures, particularly for imported goods given Argentina's history of currency devaluations and their immediate pass-through to domestic prices. Brazil's more stable monetary environment contrasts sharply with Argentina's vulnerability to external shocks and policy reversals.