From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the United States has enacted one or more bills that changes at least three of the six following components of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to either repeal or curtail them (see the fine print for fuller details):

• Eliminates or reduces the ACA's Medicaid eligibility or federal funding

• Eliminates or reduces the premium tax credit eligibility or amount

• Eliminates or curtails the individual mandate (by law the individual mandate still exists in the ACA, but has no penalty)

• Eliminates or curtails the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.

• Makes it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar account

• Eliminates or curtails medical underwriting restrictions